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Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trainer Todd Pletcher has been dominating the Sam F. Davis Stakes in recent years and has another opportunity to win the event with its 32nd renewal on Saturday. The $250,000 stakes, with a field of 11 three-year-olds, will be conducted over a distance of 1 1/16-miles. Pletcher, who has won the last two and four of the last six editions, has entered Ecabroni for St. George Stable. The gray colt has drawn post four with Javier Castellano riding. Castellano won last week's Holy Bull Stakes for Pletcher aboard Algorithms at Gulfstream Park.
Also coming in from Gulfstream is Reveron, winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day. Owned by Stipa Racing Stable, Reveron will be ridden by Fernando Jara from post 10.
Local winner Prospective has drawn the far outside post with Luis Contreras keeping the mount. Trained by Mark Casse, the colt won Tampa's Pasco Stakes last month at odds of 5-2.
Here is the full field for the Davis in post position order: State of Play, Alan Garcia; Holy Highway, Angel Serpa; Battle Hardened, Julien Leparoux; Ecabroni, Javier Castellano; Moroccan Brew, Ricardo Feliciano; Neck 'n Neck, Jose Lezcano; Fox Rules, Huber Villa-Gomez; Ravelo's Boy, Jeffrey Sanchez; Burning Time, Leandro Goncalves; Reveron, Fernando Jara and Prospective, Luis Contreras.
Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three of the eight three-year-olds entered in Saturday's $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park are trained by a pair of Hall of Fame conditioners with Kentucky Derby aspirations. The 1 1/16-mile stakes is a stepping stone to the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 7. Bob Baffert has entered a pair of colts with stakes winning Liaison slated as the 9-5 morning-line favorite. Owned by Arnold Zetcher, the three-year-old will start from post two with Rafael Bejarano returning to ride.
Liaison has won three of four starts, all last year, with wins in the Real Quiet Stakes and CashCall Futurity. He comes into his 2012 debut with earnings of $469,560, easily the most of the entrants.
"They're doing well and we want to win the race," Baffert said. "They're going into the race very well-prepared so we expect them to run pretty well. I just want them to have a good race. They've had a few starts now where they've got enough foundation and they've done well. You just want them to stay healthy."
Jerry Hollendorfer, 2011 Hall of Fame inductee, will saddle 5-2 second pick Rousing Sermon for owners Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams. Joe Talamo will be aboard the chestnut colt leaving from post six.
Here is the complete field for the Robert B. Lewis in post position order: Isn't He Clever, Corey Nakatani, 6-1; Liaison, Rafael Bejarano, 9-5; Groovin' Solo, Victor Espinoza, 12-1; I'll Have Another, Mario Gutierrez, 12-1; Sky Kingdom, Martin Garcia, 6-1; Rousing Sermon, Joe Talamo, 5-2; Empire Way, Joel Rosario, 6-1 and Chips All In, Alonso Quinonez, 6-1.
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Youzhny Against Championships Fed
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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The MySportsbook.com March Madness contest is simple just Sign-up for the March Madness bracket contest and come back after Selection Sunday to submit your March Madness picks. Then place $20.00 in wagers during each round of the March Madness tournament. Even if your bracket is not perfect you could potentially still win $10,000.00.
There is not an office pool on the planet that can offer this March Madness Grand Prize. Get together with your office, work as a team or keep the $12 Million and do it yourself and win the $12 Million. Also feel free to print out the Printable March Madness Brackets .
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